Ahh, Patrick Dangerfield of the Adelaide Crows. Or should way say Geelong now? Either way you look at it, he is a genuine chance of becoming the first player to switch clubs the same year of winning a Brownlow Medal.

Most bookies have him around $8.00 to win the Brownlow Medal, which means he is third favourite. But given he finished equal tenth here in our Phantom Brownlow, he appears to be overrated.

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Every Tom, Dick and Harry seem to be rating him based on his past performance in Brownlow Medals. To be honest it is pretty hard to ignore his record, he has polled 20+ votes the past three seasons, with it worth noting that the Crows only played final once during this period.

But this year he started relatively slow (by his standards!). We use the media votes to form our consensus on each player here at Phantom Brownlow and they suggest that he will poll in only one match from Round 2 to Round 13, which means he will be coming from a long way back.

There is an absolute bucketload of money coming in for the Crows star (ooops, we did it again, we mean Cats!) for the Brownlow Medal, so how about we take a much closer look at the reasons why Dangerfield can or can't win the award this year.

Why Dangerfield can win the Brownlow Medal

thumbs-upAny player who can poll 20+ votes three years running in a non-finals team is one to watch. Patrick Dangerfield has polled 23, 22 and 21 votes the past three years. He has polled those 66 votes from 64 games, so that is over a vote a game!

Not to mention he has polled in 27 of those 64 games, which is a rate of 42.2%. That is putting him in Gary Ablett and Chris Judd territory! With the Crows making the finals this year, he has the potential to feature highly, especially given the second half to the season where he blitzed the competition.

He also ranked #3 in the league for average contested disposals per game, #4 for inside 50s per game, #8 for clearances per game and #3 in the league for average SuperCoach score per game (if you think that matters?). So in other words, he gets noticed!

Key Points
  • Has polled 20+ votes over the past three seasons (1.03 per game)
  • Polled in 27 of 64 games (42.2%) for a total of 66 votes, since 2012
  • #3 in the league for average contested disposals (15.22 per game)
  • #4 in the league for average inside 50s (4.96 per game)
  • #8 in the league for average clearances (7.17 per game)
  • #3 in the league for average SuperCoach score (120.00 per game)

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Why Dangerfield can't win the Brownlow Medal

thumbs-downWell if you haven't rushed out and placed bets on Patrick Dangerfield thinking he is unbeatable after reading the above stats, you may like to hear some of these reasons first.

Firstly we get our votes from a consensus of the media vote getters and the AFLCA. Interestingly neither The Herald Sun nor The Age had Dangerfield in their top ten, while he only snuck in for tenth place in the AFLCA count.

We have him finishing equal tenth on our count on 16 votes, way behind Nat Fyfe on 30 votes. Also with the Crows improving this year to play in the finals, guys like Scott Thompson, Sam Jacobs and a string of others also impressed. Not to mention he may only poll in one game over an eleven game period between Round 2 to Round 13.

Key Points
  • Finish 14 votes behind the leader Nat Fyfe in our Phantom Brownlow
  • Failed to finish in the top ten in The Herald Sun and The Age counts
  • Only just snuck in for tenth in the AFLCA Award, another respected count
  • May only poll in 1 off 11 matches played between Round 2 to Round 13
  • Plenty of competition for votes with the likes of Scott Thompson and Sam Jacobs

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The Final Word

This is a really tough one to call. There is so much money coming in from punters backing Dangerfield like there is no tomorrow, plus his pros far outweigh his cons in our analysis above.

Yet the fact remains the media voters did not rate him this year. Why is that? He has put up very similar numbers this year to the previous few seasons and that has seen him net 20+ votes the past three years, that is why it is so tough.

We need to back our system though and that means Dangerfield is unlikely to win the Brownlow Medal, despite his brilliant polling record.

One way to tackle Dangerfield is to bet on him outright with Betbubbles.com. They have a cracking promotion at the moment where if Fyfe goes on to win, but Dangerfield finishes second, they will refund your stake in cash up to $100. Pretty good insurance if you ask us!